Below is a link to a thought-provoking article brought to light by Barry over @ The Big Picture discussing Doug Kass' annual prediction list for 2011. Doug has been compiling this list since 2003, though admittedly this is the first year I have stumbled upon it. Perhaps more interesting than the predictions themselves is the commentary underpinning the actual selection process.
Something highlighted we like to commonly discuss here is that conventional wisdom is indeed often wrong, thus the selection process for predictions such as these or any others tend to fade the crowd once a "peak"- determined quantitatively or socially - is obtained. Some of these might seem outlandish, others on point, but regardless make a good conversation piece and drive thoughts through the holiday week.
Of the items numbered, 10 on this list raises an eyebrow to traders as it seeks an initial $250 tumble in the value of gold, citing among other things that the "herd" has caught on and it's time to reverse. We have cited other arguments for this recently, particularly bringing into light the snapback to gold vs. real rates and deterioration of higher yielding currency pairs, driven primarily by European fears. But as provoking as the headline might appear, a $250 snapback only brings us back to July, which all things considered isn't too dramatic given recent pace and volatility. We're currently trading at 1404.45 and oz as I write and until any clear violations, the uptrend is still intact. And while we're on the topic/a personal note, if you ever go shopping on 47th street in New York and you happen to be even temporarily/slightly bearish on Gold, never, ever, bring it up in a discussion....please learn from my social errors. Save it for the monitors.
Here is a link to the article: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/12/kass-15-surprises-2011/ or click the (top portion) of the image below.
